Are we still in a downward spiral?

Cheming Yang

2011 is winding up with tons of bad news. I am not talking about the loss of Steve Jobs. There will be other Steve Jobs as history proves again and again. But when will the economy get better?

We can say for certain that economy will get better in time. But the earth can wait for millions of years for changes and we human can only wait for our life time. Sure it will not take everyone’s life time to get better. But time is definitely not on our side as opportunities slip away as people age.

The 2008 financial crisis is not over yet. We apply brakes to stop the economy from crashes. Might have avoided a crash, but create a tail spin. And we are about to know how violent the swirl will be. A lot of cashes have been pumped in for the past few years from saving the US banks in 2008 up to the European debt crises in 2011. A lot of financial institutions do not go belly up thanks to that. But the job market is still in a limbo for most countries. Most recently, Brazil overtook UK to become the 5th economic power in the world. Although it is worth celebrating for the Brazilians, there are things that we need to ponder for decades to come. Does this happen because Brazil has become so strong and outperformed UK or because UK has become so weak and was overtaken from behind?

Is this race a race for the first or merely a race to avoid being the last? When you run for gold medal, you need to be the first few to win medals. But if a group of people are running away from a wolf, the goal is not to be the last because the last got devoured by the wolf and the rest get the window of opportunities to get away. Looking ahead into 2012, are we running away from a bear or going after a bull? It looks like we have not shaken the recession enemy yet. This is the inevitable result of the measures we adopted in 2008 to have a soft landing. It might seem softer, but definitely stretches longer. As it appears, the fall is not over yet. The world economy for 2012 is like descending in parachute. Won’t crash. But definitely still going down.

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