Prospect of 2017

Cheming Yang

If you might recall that my conclusion for 2016 is that the monkey year was on soft landing and stagnant economically at best. Then what is expect of the 2017? 2017 is rooster on Chinese zodiac. Rooster is supposed to be diligent in that it has to rise early to set up the tone for the whole day. The downside is that rooster cannot fly. I am not trying to sound like an astrologist. But rooster might just be omen of what 2017 is going to look like economically. In plain English, the economy in the great Chinese circle is looking up as compared with the previous year but unlikely to be bullish by all means.
The real estate market bubble still exists. The bubble in Taiwan is deflating gradually, but the one in mainland China is still inflating. Although there is no immediate danger of bursting, they remain to be quagmires for capital flow. As such, the economy is unlikely to take off in terms of GDP.
However, shrinking GDP is not necessarily a bad thing. The aim should be everyone can make a decent living. In the face of aging, the growth should come from the long term care sector and also from the continuing contribution from the elderly in order to have a healthy economy. It is high time for the governments to pour in more investment for long term care and more incentives for its investment from the private sector. But for the individual investors, it will be wise to invest your money in long term care with caution because I am still pessimistic about the commitment in this direction from the public sector. The rooster year will still be tilted toward the economy for the young. Unless there is more balance between the young and the elderly in terms of the generation of GDP, the economy will continue to struggle at least for 2017.


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